STAMFORD, CONN. -- Philip Morris International Inc. (NYSE: PM) issued an urgent call for effective policymaking to counter the growing threat of illicit trade in the EU. In 2024, 38.9 billion illicit cigarettes were consumed in the region—the highest level since 2015—accounting for 9.2% of total cigarette consumption, with governments losing as much as €14.9 billion in tax revenues at a time when many countries face intense economic pressures.

PMI believes that exacerbating the issue are steep and abrupt tax increases, benefitting criminals who supply unregulated, untaxed and inferior products, including counterfeits, at a lower price. To combat this growing threat, PMI urges the adoption of evidence-based regulation with balanced and predictable taxation through tax calendars, continued public-private collaboration and enhanced support of regional and national law enforcement agencies, as criminal organizations dealing in illicit cigarettes have cemented their presence in higher-priced Western European countries.

According to the 2024 KPMG study, commissioned by Philip Morris Products SA, a large number of counterfeit cigarettes were consumed in the EU in 2024: 15.3 billion, a 20.2% increase vs. 2023. Additionally, so-called “illicit whites”—legally manufactured cigarettes smuggled across borders to countries where they have limited or no distribution—reached 8.2 billion.

“The illicit tobacco trade threatens the European economy, public health, security and social stability; today, higher-taxed and higher-priced markets such as France and the Netherlands are especially impacted by illegally imported and counterfeit goods,” said Christos Harpantidis, PMI’s Senior Vice President, External Affairs. “Its massive socioeconomic impact negatively affects tax collection, job creation, and legitimate businesses, the engine of our European economies. The availability of cheap, unregulated cigarettes in the underground economy also impairs efforts to reduce smoking rates and achieve a smoke-free future.”

The 2024 KPMG report indicates the increase in illicit cigarette consumption was primarily driven by France and the Netherlands. The study points to an especially alarming situation in France, where 18.7 billion illicit cigarettes were consumed in 2024, almost 7.8 billion of which were counterfeits. In the Netherlands, illicit cigarette volumes increased drastically, by 1.1 billion—more than doubled in a year—reaching 17.9% of total consumption. Had these cigarettes been legally purchased, an additional €9.4 billion would have been raised in taxes in France and almost €900 million in the Netherlands.

In contrast, countries such as Bulgaria, Greece, Italy and Portugal—and Ukraine, outside the EU—have made significant progress in curbing the illicit tobacco market. Greece, for instance, had a 6.2 ppt drop in illicit cigarette consumption in 2024, to 17.5%—the largest decrease the country has seen in a decade.

“Predictable tax regimes and robust support for local law enforcement actions have proven an effective policy recipe: We now know how to effectively counter the criminal entities that engage in the illicit manufacturing, distribution, and sale of consumer products. Other countries in the region should emulate that approach to get control over this dangerous trend,” said Massimo Andolina, PMI’s President, Europe Region. “This is the way forward if we are serious about defeating the illicit tobacco trade in our continent, which harms Europe’s economies, undermines European competitiveness and growth, and opens the door to other criminal activities. Citizens cannot afford to be deprived of much-needed state revenues in this critical moment for Europe, which are being lost rather than applied to key issues such as defense, internal security, and social programs.”

Illicit trade affects the whole of Europe

Across the 38 European countries included in KPMG’s study (the 27 EU member states, as well as Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Moldova, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Norway, Serbia, Switzerland, Ukraine, and the United Kingdom), 52.2 billion illicit cigarettes were consumed in 2024, accounting for 10.0% of total consumption. Tax revenue losses amounted to an estimated €19.4 billion.

Illicit cigarette volumes in the U.K. decreased by almost 0.8 billion in 2024, though illicit cigarettes as a share of total consumption remained stable. The U.K. is still the third-largest illicit market in Europe, with 5.9 billion illicit cigarettes consumed last year. Ukraine, in contrast, saw the largest decline in illicit consumption, with contraband and counterfeit volumes decreasing by 2.4 billion or 29% (vs. a 1.1 billion or 14% increase in 2023).

This is the 19th consecutive year that KPMG has measured and reported on illicit cigarette consumption across Europe.

Heated tobacco products

For the first time, the KPMG study included in its scope the illicit consumption of heated tobacco products in selected European countries: the Czech Republic, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Spain, and the United Kingdom.

The study reveals that contraband consumption stood at 0.4 billion sticks (the consumables used in heated tobacco devices) in 2024, representing 0.9% of total consumption. The highest contraband volumes were found in Germany (0.15 billion sticks) and Poland (0.08 billion), with the U.K. having the highest share (7.8%). To date, no counterfeit flows have been identified.

“Policymakers must recognize that repeating the policy mistakes that drive the illicit cigarette market when regulating smoke-free products—excessive and market-distorting taxation, extreme control measures such as bans, and inadequate law enforcement against illicit activities across the value chain—may and will lead to the same disaster we see today in the cigarette sector in countries adopting such policies, and that we are starting to see in countries banning the legal sale of smoke-free products,” said Andolina.

Illicit trade does not just affect the people who consume these products. It fuels ruthless criminal gangs, typically impacting the most vulnerable communities and populations. It deprives governments of critical revenues needed to fund public services, including security, defense and social services. And its proceeds facilitate other serious crimes such as human trafficking, corruption, and money laundering.

For PMI, eliminating the illicit tobacco and nicotine trade has been a long-standing priority. The company implements preventive and protective measures and works with the public and private sectors to advance efforts to address this global issue.

As PMI progresses on its commitment to deliver a smoke-free future—a future without cigarettes, by far the most harmful way to consume nicotine—it is increasing efforts to secure its supply chain and the products it sells and to protect consumers and its brands from smugglers and counterfeiters. PMI works closely with law enforcement agencies and other organizations worldwide to root out and shut down illegal activities, including counterfeiting and smuggling.