CHICAGO -- NielsenIQ (NIQ) (NYSE: NIQ), a leading consumer intelligence company, unveiled The Business Resiliency Playbook: Decoding the signals and shocks that shape consumer behavior. The playbook outlines potential impacts of the five most relevant economic scenarios for brands and retailers—including stagflation, recession, and geopolitical shocks—and how the consumers who will shape their businesses are most likely to respond to them. Critically, it highlights how delaying decisions in an unpredictable environment can expose businesses to risk and provides specific actions to help them position for resilience.

“Our goal isn’t to predict the future, but to help organizations develop robust plans that can adapt as conditions evolve,” said Ramon Melgarejo, President of Strategic Analytics & Insights, NIQ. “This playbook empowers leaders to move from reactive to resilient—using real-time consumer intelligence to guide decisions with confidence.”

Key findings include:

·Consumers don’t often differentiate between the causes of economic stress. Whether it’s inflation, job loss, or global conflict, their behavioral responses are strikingly similar. They pull back on discretionary spending, prioritize essentials, and seek value—often turning to private label products or value retailers.
·Despite fluctuating confidence and sentiment in 2025, consumers are continuing to spend overall. For the historically most sensitive categories of Meat, Seafood, Ready-to-Eat Cereal, Household Care, and Sugar & Sweets, overall spending has remained mostly flat (July 2023-June 2025), signaling consumer confidence—at least in the short-term.
·While the consumer responses to stress are similar under the scenarios analyzed, the scale and speed of their response is proportional to the magnitude of the shock. Businesses that strategize with optimal consumer trend data (overlayed with historical performance) are ideally positioned to weather any forthcoming economic headwinds.

“Our data clearly show that the size and scale of an economic ‘shock’ carries more weight than the shock itself,” said Courtenay Verret, VP, Global Thought Leadership, NIQ. “Having robust data sets—early on—will help insulate your organization from strategic misfires and allow you to pivot critical resources toward maximizing revenue and maintaining loyalty and growth.”